Fraser Sockeye Redux: Steelheader.net- Steelhead, Salmon and trout fishing

Looks like the Sockeye fishery for the Fraser may not happen this year due to low returns.

See notice:
Category(s): COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll
RECREATIONAL - Salmon

Subject: FN0603-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - August 19 - Areas 11 to 29

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The Fraser River Panel met today to receive reports from Pacific Salmon
Commission Staff (PSC) staff on the status of Fraser River sockeye abundance
and the migration of Fraser River pink salmon. During the past month the
abundance of Fraser River sockeye migrating through the marine assessment areas
has generally been less than one-third of the level that was expected during
pre-season fishery planning. The low return of Fraser River sockeye to-date
this season has prevented the commencement of numerous fisheries. At current
abundance levels, most of the sockeye are required for meeting spawning
escapement goals, which are the highest priority management goal of the Fraser
River Panel. The causes of the very low returns of Early Summer-run and Summer-
run sockeye to-date are not known with certainty. However, four year-old
Fraser River sockeye returning this year encountered high ocean temperatures
during a portion of their marine residence period, which likely had a negative
impact on their growth and juvenile-to-adult survival rate. The small body
size of Fraser sockeye observed to-date and warm marine conditions are likely
contributing to their apparent late marine timing this season. Estimates of
the diversion rate of Fraser River sockeye through Johnstone Strait are
currently ranging from 50 to 60 percent.

Very limited fisheries in the United States have caught approximately 3,800
Fraser sockeye, and an assessment fishery in Canada harvested approximately
1,100 Fraser sockeye. Non-commercial catches of Fraser sockeye total
approximately 315,000 fish in First Nations and 66,000 in test fisheries to-
date.

The run size estimate of Early Summer-run sockeye was increased from 250,000
fish to 300,000 fish (approximately 42 percent of the 50 percent p level
forecast of abundance, 718,000 fish) at the meeting today as a result of the
sustained marine migration of these sockeye. The estimated escapement of Early
Summer-run sockeye past Mission through August 18 is 206,000 fish.

There is still high uncertainty in the estimation of Summer-run sockeye
abundance due primarily to variability in assumptions regarding their late
marine migratory timing. It is projected that the run size of Summer-run
sockeye is likely to exceed 3,000,000 fish. However, if information suggesting
a potential late pulse of sockeye outside the assessment areas is verified in
test fisheries, this may result in higher assessments of Summer-run sockeye
abundance. Quesnel sockeye were forecast to return at a 50 percent probability
abundance level of almost 7,000,000 fish, however, DNA analyses continue to
suggest that they comprise a lower proportion of the Summer-run timing group
than was forecast. The escapement of Summer-run sockeye past Mission through
August 18 is currently estimated at 750,000 fish.

Recent DNA samples from Johnstone Strait purse seine test fisheries indicate
that Birkenhead sockeye are beginning to migrate through this marine approach
route. Harrison River sockeye have been the most abundant Late-run sockeye
stock migrating through the marine assessment areas over the past month, while
the proportion of Weaver Creek and Late Shuswap sockeye in these areas has been
low. The estimated escapement of Harrison sockeye past Mission through August
18 is 86,000 fish, and the run size of Harrison sockeye in 2005 will exceed the
50 percent p level forecast of 90,000 fish.

Catches of pink salmon in the purse seine test fisheries in Johnstone Strait
have been at moderate levels over most of the past week, while catches in the
Juan de Fuca Strait test fisheries have been generally low. An in-season run
size estimate of Fraser River pink salmon should be available within two weeks,
near their projected peak migration timing through the marine assessment areas.
Very limited commercial fisheries in the United States have caught
approximately 2,500 Fraser River pink salmon, and an assessment fishery in
Canada harvested approximately 400 fish. Non-commercial catches of Fraser
River pink salmon total approximately 127,000 fish in First Nations, 43,000
fish in test fisheries, and 8,000 fish in recreational fisheries to-date. The
escapement of pink salmon past Mission through August 18 is currently estimated
at 166,000 fish. Pink salmon have been observed at Hells Gate over the past
week. Their river entry pattern appears to be early in 2005, similar to that
observed in 2003.

The discharge level in the Fraser River (at Hope) on August 18 was
approximately 2,625 cms, which is 23 percent lower than average and the water
temperature of the Fraser River (at Qualark Creek) was 18.8 degrees Celsius,
which is 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than average for this date. Water
temperatures are forecast to vary from approximately 18 degrees Celsius to 19
degrees Celsius over the next week. Temperatures in this range are expected to
cause some physiological stress to migrating sockeye.

Counts of sockeye at the enumeration fences on four creeks in the Early Stuart
system through August 17 total approximately 29,000 sockeye. The peak spawning
period is almost complete in most Early Stuart streams. A total of 1,426 live
sockeye were observed during an aerial survey of the upper Chilliwack River on
August 18. Fish counts of Gates Creek sockeye total 716 fish through August
17. So far this season, Chilko sockeye have not been observed at Henrys
Bridge and sockeye have also not been observed at the enumeration fence at
Scotch Creek. Sockeye have begun to arrive at the Nadina River spawning
channel though none have passed through the counting fence to-date. The first
Cultus Lake sockeye was enumerated at the Sweltzer Creek fence on August 18.
The early arrival of this Cultus Lake sockeye at the enumeration fence is
consistent with the early arrival timing of Cultus sockeye that has been
occurring since 1999.

First Nations

First Nations targeted Fraser River sockeye fisheries in the Fraser River will
continue this week and an update will be provided on August 22 following the
next Fraser River Panel meeting.

Recreational

Sockeye retention remains closed in the Fraser River. Opportunities for the
commencement of Fraser River sockeye retention will be reviewed and an update
will be provided on August 22.

Commercial

Remains closed. Opportunities for the commencement of any assessment or
commercial fisheries will be reviewed and an update will be provided on August
22.

The Panel will meet again on August 22 to evaluate the status of the Fraser
River sockeye and pink salmon runs and to consider regulatory actions.

Well at least the FN is getting their share

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Is my Red Neck showing?
Politically correct..... What's that?
Netting = extinction