Fraser...: Steelheader.net- Steelhead, Salmon and trout fishing

Subject: FN0519-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - July 27 - Areas 11 to 29

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The Fraser River Panel met today to examine biological and other assessment
data on Fraser River sockeye salmon. In general, test fishing catches in marine
and Fraser River assessment areas have continued to indicate a very low
migration of sockeye salmon thus far this season. Estimates of Fraser River
sockeye escapement past Mission and observations of sockeye passing Hells Gate
similarly have also been very low.

The proportion of five year old sockeye in test-fishing catches to-date has
been much higher than forecast and is another factor that suggests extreme
weakness in the return of some four year old Fraser sockeye stocks, which were
expected to comprise most of the total Fraser sockeye production in 2007. The
weak return of four year old Fraser sockeye thus far is following a pattern
that is similar to the low returns observed to several other B.C. and
Washington sockeye stocks this season. For example, the return of four year old
Somass River sockeye is tracking less than one-third of the forecast to-date.
Although the possibility of later than expected marine migration timing of
Fraser sockeye cannot be ruled out, assessments of Early Stuart, Lake
Washington and Somass River sockeye do not suggest that their migration timing
is significantly later than average.

The estimated spawning escapement of Fraser sockeye in 2003 (the brood year of
the four year old sockeye returning now) was almost 2,000,000 fish, which,
based on past observations, would normally produce a reasonably strong return
of Fraser River sockeye four years later (i.e., in 2007). Poor marine
environmental conditions for juvenile sockeye in 2005 when the four year old
sockeye returning in 2007 entered the ocean as juveniles (i.e., generally warm
water temperatures, low oxygen levels, and low food availability), may have
negatively impacted juvenile-to-adult survival rates for at least some of the
Fraser sockeye stocks returning this season. The performance of this years
four year old sockeye return will be assessed further as the season progresses,
and as additional test fishery and escapement data are collected.

The marine migration of Early Stuart sockeye is complete. At the meeting today,
the Panel approved an in-season run size estimate of 13,000 Early Stuart
sockeye, which is less than one-third of the pre-season 50% probability level
forecast of 45,000 fish. The estimated 50% passage date of Early Stuart sockeye
through Area 20 this season is July 1, which is consistent with the pre-season
forecast of their marine timing. The estimated escapement of Early Stuart
sockeye past Mission through July 26 is 12,000 fish.

The migration of Early Summer-run sockeye through marine and Fraser River
assessment areas has been very low thus far and it is very unlikely that they
will reach their forecast level of abundance (50% probability level forecast of
690,000 fish) A more accurate assessment of their run size will be available
next week. The estimated escapement of Early Summer-run sockeye past Mission
through July 26 is 7,000 fish.

Summer-run sockeye (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako, and Late Stuart) were forecast
to comprise slightly over half (3,369,000 fish at the 50% probability level
forecast) of the total Fraser River sockeye run in 2007 and harvest
opportunities were focused on this timing-group in the pre-season fishing plan.
It is early in the migration of Summer-run sockeye through the marine
assessment areas and an update on their run size and marine migration timing
will likely not be available until after the first week of August.

Migration conditions for sockeye in the Fraser River are presently
satisfactory. On July 26, the Fraser River discharge at Hope was about 6,100
cms, which is approximately 26% higher than normal, while the water temperature
at Qualark Creek was 16.7 0C, which is slightly lower than average for this
date. The discharge of the Fraser River at Hope is forecast to continue to
decline while water temperatures are forecast to increase to approximately 18.5
0C by mid next week. Fraser River water temperatures exceeding 18 0C may have
an adverse impact on the upstream migration of sockeye salmon.

The enumeration fences on Gluske and Kynock creeks in the Early Stuart system
are now operational; however DFO crews have been unable to install the fence on
Forfar Creek due to high water levels. Sockeye have recently been observed off
the mouths off all three of these creeks.

First Nations

Food, ceremonial and social fisheries (FSC) for First Nations targeting Fraser
River sockeye are open in Marine waters, however, given the low sockeye
abundance harvesting effort to date has been very low. There will also be
limited FSC fisheries in the Fraser River. Duration of FSC fisheries in the
Fraser River are reduced given the low abundance of Fraser River sockeye
observed to date.

Recreational

Recreational fisheries for Fraser River sockeye in South Coast marine waters
and the Fraser River remains closed to sockeye retention.

Commercial

No commercial fisheries are planned at this time.

The Panel will meet again on Friday July 31 to evaluate the status of the
Fraser River sockeye salmon runs and to consider regulatory actions.

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Is my Red Neck showing?
Politically correct..... What's that?
Netting = extinction